The big pictures do not bring too much worries: The growth of population is under control (555 million in 2005 and 700 expected in 2030). The economy is prosperous and the GNI accounts for 785 $Billion in 2004. All these countries have known a strong increase between 1987 and 1996 ( The output grew by 7% per year-Asian tigers!). Unfortunately, the financial crisis in 1997 and the high tech crisis in 2001 occurred on a large scale. Today, most of these countries are facing with Chinese competition and cannot expect the same growth rate as in the past. However, the global prospects remain good and the GNI could attain 2465 $Billion in 2030.
On the other hand, South East Asia is not an homogeneous region: Some countries are scattered on many islands and the ethnic and religious disparity not only exists between the main nations. It exists also inside some of them. Until now, this patchwork was not a major problem. Right now, the situation is rapidly changing: Since september 2001, Islamism is on the increase. The islamic tidal wave aims to create a great "Caliphate" including Indonesia, Malaysia and the southern areas of Thailand and Philippines.
Considering this process, risks of religious wars exist in the entire region. In short, many uncertainties!
( Five years ago, I visited Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand. In october 2004, I visited Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia. In May 2005, I made a business trip in Philippines: As usual, this survey is based on actual facts and reports from informative persons)
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