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19.8.12

U.S. intelligence analysis for trends on 2030

  ASPEN, Colo. (AP) — Poverty across the planet will be virtually eliminated by 2030, with a rising middle class of some two billion people pushing for more rights and demanding more resources, the chief of the top U.S. intelligence analysis shop said Saturday.
If current trends continue, the 1 billion people who live on less than a dollar a day now will drop to half that number in roughly two decades, Christoper Kojm said.
"We see the rise of the global middle class going from one to two billion," Kojm said, in a preview of the National Intelligence Council's global forecast offered at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado.
"Even if some of the most dire predictions of economic upheaval" in the coming years prove accurate, the intelligence council still sees "several hundred million people...entering the middle class," Kojm said.
The National Intelligence Council analyzes critical national security issues drawing from all U.S. intelligence agencies. The unclassified global forecast, which is due out by the end of the year, tries to "describe drivers of future behavior" to help government agencies from the White House to the State Department plan future policy and programs, Kojm said.
The rising middle class will have little tolerance of authoritarian regimes, combined with the economic resources and education needed to challenge them.
"Governance will be increasingly difficult in countries with rising incomes," he said, adding "middle-class people have middle-class values and aspirations" for greater individual empowerment and are now armed with social media and other technological tools to bring that about, including the overthrow of repressive governments.
Education levels are also rising, with graduation rates for women set to exceed that of men if current trends continue.
On the negative side, Kojm predicted food demand will rise by 50% in the next 18 years, though global population will only rise from 7.1 to 8.3 billion. Middle-class people want middle-class diets, which are heavy in meat, requiring more water and grain to produce, he said.
Adding to that, "nearly 50% of humanity will live in water-stressed regions by 2030," he said.
But Kojm also predicted that new technological developments could help close the gap between food and water shortages and need.
More people will migrate to cities, he said. Some 50% of the world lives in urban areas now, rising to 60% by 2030.
The growth of the Asian economies, such as China, is expected to continue, but Kojm said the rising median age of China's workers means it may be overtaken by countries with cheaper labor like India, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Dozier can be reached on Twitter: http://twitter.com/kimberlydozier

8.10.10

FUTURE OF SOUTH EAST ASIA

The big pictures do not bring too much worries: The growth of population is under control (555 million in 2005 and 700 expected in 2030). The economy is prosperous and the GNI accounts for 785 $Billion in 2004. All these countries have known a strong increase between 1987 and 1996 ( The output grew by 7% per year-Asian tigers!). Unfortunately, the financial crisis in 1997 and the high tech crisis in 2001 occurred on a large scale. Today, most of these countries are facing with Chinese competition and cannot expect the same growth rate as in the past. However, the global prospects remain good and the GNI could attain 2465 $Billion in 2030.

On the other hand, South East Asia is not an homogeneous region: Some countries are scattered on many islands and the ethnic and religious disparity not only exists between the main nations. It exists also inside some of them. Until now, this patchwork was not a major problem. Right now, the situation is rapidly changing: Since september 2001, Islamism is on the increase. The islamic tidal wave aims to create a great "Caliphate" including Indonesia, Malaysia and the southern areas of Thailand and Philippines.

Considering this process, risks of religious wars exist in the entire region. In short, many uncertainties!

( Five years ago, I visited Myanmar, Singapore, Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand. In october 2004, I visited Laos, Vietnam and Malaysia. In May 2005, I made a business trip in Philippines: As usual, this survey is based on actual facts and reports from informative persons)

8.10.08

The Financial Crisis Could Prolong The Pain











WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Tuesday that the financial crisis has not only darkened the country's current economic performance but also could prolong the pain. - read more-

3.10.08

$700B Bailout and A Tremendous Impact On American

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for the power to buy $700 billion in toxic assets clogging the financial system and threatening the economy as negotiations began on the largest bailout since the Great Depression.

The rescue plan would give Washington broad authority to purchase bad mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions for the next two years. It does not specify which institutions qualify or what, if anything, the government would get in return for the unprecedented infusion.

Democrats are pressing to require that the plan help more strapped borrowers stay in their homes and to condition the bailout on new limits on executive compensation.

Congressional aides and administration officials are working through the weekend to fill in the details of the proposal. The White House hoped for a deal with Congress by the time markets opened Monday; top lawmakers say they would push to enact the plan as early as the coming week.

"We're going to work with Congress to get a bill done quickly," President Bush said at the White House. Without discussing specifics, he said, "This is a big package because it was a big problem." -- read more

6.8.08

Should you Refinance?

When rates are low, refinancing can be a no-brainer. But, what if they're not? Is refinancing still an option? You bet. Here are five reasons why you should consider refinancing:

1. You want lower monthly payments.
A lower rate may mean lower monthly payments. Consider taking out a new loan for the same length of time that remains on your current mortgage.Choose this option if you plan to stay in your home for the life of the mortgage or need more cash for current financial obligations such as college or a new car.

2. You want to pay off your mortgage more quickly.
You may be able to shorten the length of your mortgage (say, from 30 years to 15 years) while keeping your monthly payment at or near its current level. You could save thousands ofdollars in interest and assume full ownership of your house more quickly. Choose this option if you don't plan to stay in your house for very long and you have ample current cash for your current financial obligations.

3. You want to lock in a low rate.
Refinancing may be an easy way to convert your Adjustable Rate Mortgage into a Fixed RateMortgage, ensuring a stable mortgage payment. Check first to see if your current loan has any charge lock-in feature. Choose this option if you expect the rate on your ARM to go up.
Which is better - fixed or adjustable?

4. You want a better Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM).
Mortgage options are constantly changing. A new adjustable rate program may be available that has more favorable rates and terms than your current loan. Choose this option if you are unhappy with the terms of your current ARM.

5. You want to consolidate debt.
If you have enough equity in your home, you might want to combine a home equity loan with your original mortgage and have one manageable payment. Or you might want to wipe out some other high-interest debt, such as credit and charge card balances or installment loans.

Refinance to Save Money

Refinancing with a new interest rate or loan term can be a great way to save money on your mortgage.
A lower rate means lower payments
If rates have fallen since you took out your current mortgage, refinancing now may get you a lower rate. That means your monthly payments will go down, assuming the interest rate is all that changes.Lower payments are great, but will they actually save you money? That depends on the cost of taking out a new loan, how long you plan to stay in your home, and how much less you will be paying each month. Use our
Refinance Break-Even Calculator to run the numbers and find out if refinancing will pay off.
Get lower payments with a longer term
Another way to reduce your monthly payments is to lengthen your loan term, which is the length of time you spend repaying it. With your payments spread out over a longer time period, each one will be smaller.The drawback to this approach is that because you will repay the mortgage principal more slowly, you may end up paying more interest overall.
Shorten your loan term to pay less interest
You can reduce the total amount of interest you pay by shortening your loan term. With fewer monthly payments required to repay the loan, each payment will reduce the balance by a larger amount. As your balance decreases more rapidly, so will interest charges. Besides reducing your interest costs, a shorter loan term helps you build equity faster. That means you'll have a growing source of wealth to draw from when you need it.